Stephen Innes, the head of trading for the Asia Pacific region at foreign exchange (FX) trading giant Oanda, has said that the plunge in the value of bitcoin and crypto will lead to a surge in the price of gold.
In an interview, Innes said:
“There’s still a lot of people in this game. If Bitcoin collapses, if we start to see a run down toward $3,000, this thing is going to be a monster. People will be running for the exits. I don’t think coins are going to be anywhere near as attractive as some of the other cross-asset plays. Gold prices are going to jump considerably higher and there’s an inverse relationship we’re starting to see with gold and coins.”
Is Gold a Better Investment Than Bitcoin?
Since 2011, gold has consistently declined in value, from $1,800 to $1,200, by more than 33 percent. In contrast, since 2011, Bitcoin has increased from $30 to $4,200, up 13,900 percent in the past seven years.
According to Innes, an inverse correlation has been spotted between cryptocurrencies and gold. He stated that as major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin drop in value, the price of gold rises.
However, as shown in the yearly chart of gold, the price of gold has not increased in the past year while the cryptocurrency market suffered its fifth biggest correction to date. In fact, since January, the price of gold has dropped from $1,360 to $1,220.
The narrative that the drop in the price of cryptocurrencies leads to an increase in the price of gold is wildly inaccurate, as the data demonstrates that there exists no correlation between the two assets.
While cryptocurrencies have fallen by a significantly larger margin that gold, the precious metal has also fallen substantially by its standard.
Even if the long-term trends of gold and Bitcoin are considered, Bitcoin has consistently outperformed gold since it was created in 2009. Hence, the argument that gold will benefit from Bitcoin approaching $3,000 is false, given that gold has clearly not been affected by the price trend of BTC.
Gold Versus Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price (Blue) vs. Gold Price (Red) over the past 5 years. | Source: TradingViewA recent survey conducted by Ron Paul, a retired politician who served as the US Representative for Texas’s 14th congressional district, demonstrated that the majority of millennials prefer Bitcoin as a long-term investment over the U.S. dollar and gold.
For millennials, the motive behind the preference of Bitcoin over gold is strikingly obvious. The trend of the financial market is moving towards digitalization. To trade, purchase, or sell gold bullion, large financial institutions and banks are involved, which millennials generally do not favor, as many studies have shown.
For instance, the London bullion market (LBMA), has a clearing system in place to settle orders that is operated by a corporation called LPMCL which is owned and managed by the five banks including HSBC, ICBC Standard Bank, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, and UBS.
Amongst experienced investors, gold could continue to be a viable store of value especially in periods of uncertainty and volatility. But, amongst millennials, the trend of financial technologies (fintech), blockchain, and crypto is expected to be sustained in the long run.
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